The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is at this moment in time not secure within his own job. His popularity - despite some impressive policy results - leaves something to be desired. The recent emergence of 3 million documents relating to the financier and paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, led to controversy when it was found that former ambassador to the US Peter Mandelson was said to have had an ongoing relationship with Epstein despite his criminal conviction and most importantly that Starmer knew about this relationship. Since this evidence came out, the PM has been on the ropes with many calling for his resignation. Given the weight of this scandal, you may be wondering how he can be saved from what looks like the final stages of his political career. Well, I think there is hope for the Labour leader. It occurs ironically within the area of foreign policy.
In his premiership, Starmer has generally come off better in the public eye when it comes to foreign policy, making some big deals for Britain. In January he was in Beijing to agree a deal that British citizens to visit China for up to 20 days without a visa, a breakthrough in some eyes. Earlier, the PM was in India to visit their Prime Minister Narendra Modi, where he agreed a trade deal set to increase the UK’s GDP by £4.8 billion, a resounding success for the Labour Government and above all its leader. International successes have worked in the past for previous PMs; for example, Margaret Thatcher’s strong approach to the Falklands War in 1982 arguably gave her a step up in defeating Michael Foot in the 1983 general election. Additionally, the issue of diplomatic strategy can also act as a dagger to election hopes. John O’Farrell in his book Things can only get better suggests that during the 1997 election campaign the issue of Europe was like a sword through the heart of John Major and the Tory Party. This shows that if Sir Keir were to get it wrong, it may well be the nail in the coffin. Yet if he gets it right, it might give him a way to regain public support.
On the other hand, and rather unfortunately for the Prime Minister the UK media has a tendency to focus more generally on the issues within the United Kingdom. As a result, Starmer often gets blamed for and consequently has to deal with amid growing public pressure: an immigration crisis caused by the previous Conservative government, an economic crisis caused by Brexit, COVID-19 and Liz Truss’ mini budget, and also a housing crisis caused by Margaret Thatcher’s Right to Buy scheme in the 1980 Housing Act. A key bellwether is the upcoming by-election in Gorton and Denton, Manchester in which it is possible the Labour party finishes 3rd. This election will be a good chance to see what matters most to the average voter. If Labour struggles in this seat, it will suggest disillusionment is deep.
Starmer’s future is somewhat dependent on how he deals with US President Donald Trump. According to YouGov polls from 2025, just 22% of Britons have a favourable opinion of Trump and his Presidency. This could prove as a key advantage to Starmer. In early January of 2026 Trump made a comment saying British soldiers did not serve “on the frontlines” in Afghanistan. This kind of behaviour gives momentum to Starmer and the Labour Party for defying Trump’s overbearing nature. This has proved fatal to Trump allies who wished to take control of other countries. For example, Mark Carney was able to defeat right-wing opposition Pierre Poilievre in the Canadian Prime Ministerial race, Trump having joked about Canada becoming an American State just weeks before the election. Similarly, in Australia Peter Dutton was defeated in another vote which was influenced by the President. Dutton had intended to imitate Trump policies such as cutting public sector jobs like DOGE in the US. Dutton paid for his allegiance when Anthony Albanese was re-elected in May 2025.
Clearly Starmer could use this to his advantage against current poll leader Nigel Farage and his party Reform UK as Farage is well known to be friendly with the man in the White House. By pitting himself against Trump, Starmer could gain the respect of millions of voters and concomitantly dissuade voters from Reform. Though among international circles, France tells a different story. French President Emmanuel Macron is in rather the same position as our PM, with his approval rating being slightly lower. Macron or rather his party, as he himself is not allowed to serve another term, is on the verge of extinction with the rise in popularity of the Rassemblement National (RN), a party led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella. This ‘far-right’ party has been able to capture votes in rural France who are fed up with the Parisian elite, something explained by Victor Mallet in his book Far-Right France. By keeping their focus away from Trump and toward France, the RN has been able to make major gains such as in the 2024 National Assembly elections. If this is the case for France, then might it be the same for the UK? If Farage plays his cards right, Starmer’s position may look even more vulnerable than it does at the moment.
Starmer finds himself in a hole now, but I would argue it is not all over for the PM. His excellent performance abroad and his plans for Britain at home could be enough to get him through. Foreign policy could be his saving grace in his first term as PM, depending on circumstances that present themselves over the next few months and years. Foreign policy might not win him the next election, but it could certainly stop him from losing it.